Since Saturday morning, 28.02, the US and Israel have bombed 131 Iranian cities, including the capital, Tehran.
Iran retaliated, launching missiles at Israel and US bases in four Gulf countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE), as well as in Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Oman. A British base in Cyprus was also struck by a drone.
The attacks occurred amid US-Iran nuclear negotiations and eight months after the 12-day US-Israel-Iran conflict.
The attacks killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
“He was assassinated along with members of his family, at his home while on duty […] he is declared a martyr and 40 days of mourning have been announced,” reported state television.
The deaths of the heads of the Revolutionary Guards*, the National Defense Council, and the army chief were also confirmed.
*The Revolutionary Guards are a second military force in Iran tasked with preventing potential coups and protecting the state ideology.
Ali Khamenei became Supreme Leader in 1989, following the death of the “father” of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Ruhollah Khomeini.
According to Iran’s theocratic constitution, the Supreme Leader is above all and everyone.
The Supreme Leader is not directly elected but chosen by a body of 88 senior clerics. In wartime, power is temporarily assumed by the president, a senior judge, and a senior cleric.
At least 555 civilians have been killed and 750 injured by US-Israel attacks.
Most victims (150+) were elementary school girls in a girls’ school in southeastern Iran, hit during class.
Israel reported 9 deaths from Iranian strikes, and the US reported 3.
At least 31 deaths and 150 injuries have been recorded so far in Lebanon due to Israeli bombings.
The Iranian nuclear program is once again cited as justification.
For years, the US and Israel have claimed that Iran’s nuclear program poses an immediate threat to both countries, arguing that the use of force is the only way to contain it.
Tehran always responds that its nuclear program is peaceful and accuses Israel of being the only Middle Eastern country with (unofficial) nuclear weapons.
No.
However, the US-Iran-Israel conflict has mostly been fought via proxies.
Over the years, attacks—mainly against Iran’s nuclear program—have occurred, but none of the parties officially admitted responsibility.
The most notable incident was the 12-day war (June 2025), when Israel struck Iranian nuclear targets, killing several senior officials.
Since the ceasefire announcement on 25.06, tensions remained high, with Iran continuing its nuclear program despite Israeli strikes.
Key were the deadly anti-government protests in Dec-Jan, supported by the US, with Trump pledging to help protesters overthrow the regime.
In early February, US-Iran nuclear talks resumed but ended in a deadlock.
During negotiations, the US demanded, among other things, that Iran fully halt uranium enrichment, limit its military (missile) program, and end support for groups such as Hamas (Palestine) and Hezbollah (Lebanon).
Iran partially agreed to the first demand but claimed the others were impossible, as they are “inalienable rights.”
A clear sign of US intentions was the buildup of military forces in the region.
In recent weeks, the US strengthened its military presence in the Middle East—the largest concentration since the 2003 Iraq invasion.
They reinforced defenses around Iran and deployed warships off Israel and in the Arabian Sea (Persian Gulf, Gulf of Aden, and Oman).
Regime continuity
The regime “endures,” replacing the assassinated leaders.
Military control
The Revolutionary Guards take control, imposing martial law to “eliminate” internal and external threats.
Path to chaos
Internal competition to succeed the assassinated leaders, combined with popular uprisings to overthrow the regime, could lead to chaos.
Previous examples from Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003), and Libya (2011) show similar patterns.
