(fyiteam)
Since the end of November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears to be changing his previous stance on ending the war.
For most of the conflict, Zelenskyy maintained that Ukraine would continue fighting until it regained the approximately 20% of its territory currently controlled by Moscow.
Now, he seems open to conceding those territories in exchange for NATO membership.
This shift in position was influenced by events in November, the month that changed the course of the war in Ukraine.
(fyiteam)
In the last two months (October-November), Russia made its largest territorial gains in Ukraine since the summer of 2022.
Russian forces have captured over 155,000 square kilometers of land (an area larger than Greece) in the eastern Donbas region, which is now the focal point of the Russo-Ukrainian war.
This has allowed them to take control of strategically important cities for the defense and resupply of Ukrainian forces, giving Russia potential for further expansion.
(fyiteam)
A key factor in Zelenskyy’s shift in stance has been the election of Donald Trump in the United States in early November.
The elected president claimed he would end the war within 24 hours, though he did not present a plan for accomplishing this.
However, Trump is expected to resume U.S.-Russia talks, reduce American aid to Ukraine (as he has stated), and create disruptions within NATO.
(fyiteam)
In late November, Trump announced that he would appoint Keith Kellogg, a former brigadier general, as the U.S. special envoy to the country. Kellogg had presented him with a plan to end the war.
The plan stipulates that Kyiv must abandon any aim of reclaiming the occupied territories.
(fyiteam)
Immediately after his party’s defeat (Democrats), President Biden publicly committed to increasing aid to Kyiv before officially stepping down from his duties in January.
In mid-November, he authorized Ukraine for the first time to use U.S. long-range missiles (ATACMS) to strike Russian territory, initially targeting the Russian border region of Kursk, part of which has been captured by Ukrainian forces. This region also hosts 50,000 Russian soldiers, including many North Koreans.
However, using these missiles does not appear to be altering the course of the war in favor of Ukraine.
(fyiteam)
In late November, Russia launched large-scale attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, causing power outages for at least 1 million people and leaving many areas without stable electricity during sub-zero temperatures.
This, along with U.S. pressure on Kyiv to lower the conscription age to 18 (from 25) to strengthen the Ukrainian military, has caused discontent among Ukrainians.
A Gallup poll in November found that 52% of Ukrainians in non-occupied areas support negotiating to end the war “as soon as possible,” up from 27% last year, while 38% support continuing the war until Ukraine wins, down from 63% last year.
(fyiteam)
However, the most probable outcome is the initiation of negotiations between the two sides, regardless of their conclusion.
Fyi: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has lasted almost 1,020 days, having begun on February 24, 2022.
