U.S. Elections: The most closely contested race in history

Exactly three weeks before the election, an analysis by The New York Times of recent polls shows that the two candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, are tied in the seven key swing states that will determine the next president.

In three of these states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania), Harris leads by 1 point, while in three others (Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona), Trump leads by the same margin. In Nevada, they are tied at 48%-48%.

According to The New York Times, never before in U.S. history have two candidates been so closely matched in the swing states, making this year’s election the most competitive ever.

The most significant changes in polling percentages last week were in Michigan and Wisconsin. However, the newspaper points out that “largest” doesn’t mean “significant.”

Under the U.S. system, the candidate who wins a state by even one vote (50% + 1 vote) receives all of that state’s electoral votes.

In October, Trump gained just one point overall, a shift that seems significant for this year’s race but would have been of little consequence in previous elections.

Additionally, two recent polls from NBC News and ABC News show that the two candidates are nearly tied, whereas both showed that Harris was leading by 5-6 points just a few weeks ago.

This week’s data shows a slight shift in Trump’s favor, which could even be a statistical error. However, if more polls reflected the same trend, the reason would be clear: Harris lost her narrow lead after the debate and the events that followed.

Most U.S. states consistently vote either Democratic or Republican.

However, a few states, known as swing states, can fluctuate. These states often determine the final outcome by deciding the winner.

The swing states aren’t always the same. This year, there are seven: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Nevada.

Since the summer, both candidates (Harris and Trump) have visited all seven at least once, while they’ve hardly visited the other states.

Pennsylvania appears to be the most crucial this year, with both candidates visiting more than four times and spending a third of their advertising budget there.