The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is now considered practically unattainable, according to a UN report released yesterday. The report shifts the focus of climate policy to limiting how far warming exceeds 1.5°C and then gradually bringing temperatures back down.
The global average temperature has already risen by around 1.4°C compared with the 1850-1900 period, while the UN estimates that the 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded within the next few years. This does not mean that every additional tenth of a degree no longer matters. The higher temperatures rise, the greater the climate risks and the more difficult it will be to bring them back down in the future.
According to the report, for there to be a realistic chance of bringing warming back close to 1.5°C within this century, it would need to peak at around 1.8°C. Even this scenario is considered difficult.
Under current policies, the Earth’s average temperature is expected to rise by 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
This would require not only rapid and substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions until net-zero CO₂ emissions are reached, but also the removal of vast amounts of carbon dioxide that have already accumulated in the atmosphere.
This could be achieved through large-scale reforestation and technologies that capture CO₂ directly from the air. However, these technologies currently operate on a very limited scale, while large-scale reforestation requires vast areas of land and could conflict with needs such as food production.
Time is limited, as current climate policies put the planet on track for around 2.6°C of warming by 2100. Even if temperatures are later brought down, some consequences, such as sea-level rise and glacier loss, may remain irreversible for centuries.
Source: The New York Times
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