Forecasts for the Greek economy appear increasingly pessimistic, as expectations that oil prices will stabilize at an average of $75–80 per barrel over the year are based on the assumption that the war will end within days.
However, due to heightened uncertainty—primarily linked to the unpredictable stance of the United States—this “positive” scenario now appears less likely. If the war were indeed to end within a few days, inflation is estimated to rise to 2.5%, compared to the previous estimate of 2.2%, while the growth rate would see a slight slowdown.
If oil prices remain at $100 per barrel (having fluctuated since Friday and standing at $106 today), inflation would climb to 4.7%, and economic growth would decline by 0.5% in 2026, falling from 2.4% to 1.9%.
The National Bank of Greece estimates that the economy will move closer to this negative scenario in the second quarter of 2026, forecasting 2% growth (instead of 2.5%) and 3.2% inflation (instead of 2.3%).
This growth forecast is also close to the bank’s estimate from last week, which suggested that under an adverse scenario—marked by higher energy prices and increased uncertainty through the second quarter of 2026—growth would reach 2%, compared to a previous forecast of 2.5%.
Regarding inflation, the bank predicts it will climb to 3.2%, compared with 2.3% in its baseline scenario.
Sources: Καθημερινή , ΝΥΤ
What is fyi.news?
