The heatwave affecting Western Europe is the most intense heatwave ever recorded in the region and, according to a new study by World Weather Attribution, would not have been practically possible without human-caused climate change.
The analysis, which was based on recorded temperature data and forecasts for the heatwave that began on June 18, estimates that an event of similar intensity is now around 200 times more likely compared with the climate conditions of 2003, while under the climate of 1976 it would have been almost impossible. The two years were selected because extreme heat events were also recorded in Europe at the time.
Europe is warming more than any other continent, by around 0.56°C per decade, a rate more than twice the global average.
The researchers estimate that, without today’s warming, a comparable heatwave would have been noticeably milder: around 3.5°C cooler during the day and 2.4°C cooler at night compared with the climate of 1976, and around 2°C and 1.3°C cooler respectively compared with 2003. At the same time, 45% of the 850 cities examined across 30 European countries have already broken or are expected to break heat-stress records, an index that factors in both temperature and humidity.
The episode is part of a broader trend of rapid warming in Europe, which, according to Copernicus, is warming faster than any other continent. Specifically, it has been warming by around 0.56°C per decade since the mid-1990s, more than twice the global average rate.
Source: Associated Press, The New York Times
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