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A shadow war could refer to a proxy war, where smaller countries fight on behalf of larger powers, involving cyberattacks, economic sanctions, and covert operations.
The Cold War between the USA and the USSR, from 1947 to 1991, was largely “shadowy,” with the intelligence services of both countries often carrying out sabotage against each other and fighting through proxies in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a cross-border journalistic investigation in four Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark), published in 2023, focused on the broader strategy and activities of Russian intelligence services in the region.
The journalists obtained a list of alleged Russian spies by speaking with sources and analyzing databases and locations related to Russian ship activities in the Baltic Sea.
The investigation revealed that current and former Russian officials from the Russian intelligence services (SVR – Foreign Intelligence Service, GRU – Military Intelligence, FSB – Security Service) are active in at least three countries (Sweden, Norway, and Denmark).
The journalistic investigation was turned into a documentary titled “Putin’s Shadow War.”
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The Baltic Sea is critical for both Russia and the West. Approximately 2,000 ships pass through it daily, and a vast network of underwater cables carries data, electricity, and natural gas across Europe.
The investigation revealed that Russian ships use underwater surveillance systems to map critical infrastructure that Moscow could potentially target for sabotage.
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The shadow fleet consists of aging oil tankers (around 18 years old) purchased and used, often by opaque companies with listed addresses in countries not subject to sanctions.
Their purpose is to help Russian oil exporters bypass the $60 per barrel price cap imposed by Ukraine’s allies on Russia as part of the sanctions.
The ships do not conceal their stops at Russian oil terminals, and some have direct links to Russia, while in other cases, it is often unclear who exactly is behind the registered owners and what security and insurance practices the ships follow.
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In September, CNN reported that the U.S. had detected increased Russian military activity around key underwater cables in the Baltic, raising concerns that Russia might be planning sabotage operations targeting a critical part of the global communications infrastructure.
A U.S. official also stated that Russia continues to develop naval capabilities for underwater sabotage.
Three months later, on January 14, NATO announced it would increase patrols and surveillance in the Baltic Sea to protect critical infrastructure, following several damages to underwater cables that have alerted European authorities.
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In November, a Chinese commercial vessel was accused of cutting two telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea, connecting Sweden to Lithuania and Germany to Finland. An investigation was launched to determine whether this was sabotage driven by Russia.
The ship, carrying Russian fertilizer, left the Russian port of Ust-Luga in the Baltic on November 15. A few days later, it anchored but continued to sail at low speed for over 100 miles, cutting the cables with its anchor. During this time, the ship’s transponder was turned off.
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Swedish authorities ordered the detention of a vessel in the Baltic Sea suspected of damaging an underwater fiber optic cable connecting Latvia to the Swedish island of Gotland.
The vessel, flying the Maltese flag, had departed from the Ust-Luga port several days before the incident. Local media reports suggest the ship was near the site of the damage when it is believed to have occurred.
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Finnish authorities seized a vessel carrying Russian oil in the Baltic Sea, suspecting it damaged an underwater power cable connecting Finland and Estonia during Christmas and damaged or broken four internet lines.
Finland reported that the cables showed signs of anchor damage, believed to be from the ship, which dropped anchor and continued to sail for about 100 kilometers.
The vessel, Eagle S, is registered in the Cook Islands and is believed to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet.”
The incidents above (and others) are merely “signs of sabotage,” as nothing has been confirmed, and it may never be.
Officials from Western intelligence services told the WP that, so far, there is no evidence that the ships dragging anchors across the seabed and hitting cables did so intentionally.
Nevertheless, the climate between the West and Russia appears to be Cold War-like, with the two countries clashing in various ways: through proxies, intelligence services, and sanctions.
